Sunday, October 6, 2013

Guerrilla Warfare 02: Size and Composition

From Robert Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress:
"The trouble with conspiracies is that they rot internally. When the number is as high as four, chances are even that one is a spy."

Wyoh said glumly, "You make it sound hopeless."

"Not at all, my dear. One chance in a thousand, perhaps."

"I can't believe it. I don't believe it! Why, in the years I've been active we have gained members by the hundreds! We have organizations in all major cities. We have the people with us."

Prof shook head. "Every new member made it that much more likely that you would be betrayed. Wyoming dear lady, revolutions are not won by enlisting the masses. Revolution is a science only a few are competent to practice. It depends on correct organization and, above all, on communications. Then, at the proper moment in history, they strike. Correctly organized and properly timed it is a bloodless coup. Done clumsily or prematurely and the result is civil war, mob violence, purges, terror. I hope you will forgive me if I say that, up to now, it has been done clumsily."

Wyoh looked baffled. "What do you mean by 'correct organization'?"

"Functional organization. How does one design an electric motor? Would you attach a bathtub to it, simply because one was available? Would a bouquet of flowers help? A heap of rocks? No, you would use just those elements necessary to its purpose and make it no larger than needed--and you would incorporate safety factors. Function controls design.

"So it is with revolution. Organization must be no larger than necessary--never recruit anyone merely because he wants to join. Nor seek to persuade for the pleasure of having another share your views. He'll share them when the times comes... or you've misjudged the moment in history. Oh, there will be an educational organization but it must be separate; agitprop is no part of basic structure.

"As to basic structure, a revolution starts as a conspiracy therefore structure is small, secret, and organized as to minimize damage by betrayal--since there always are betrayals. One solution is the cell system and so far nothing better has been invented.

"Much theorizing has gone into optimum cell size. I think that history shows that a cell of three is best--more than three can't agree on when to have dinner, much less when to strike. Manuel, you belong to a large family; do you vote on when to have dinner?"

"Bog, no! Mum decides."

"Ah." Prof took a pad from his pouch, began to sketch. "Here is a cells-of-three tree. If I were planning to take over Luna. I would start with us three. One would be opted as chairman. We wouldn't vote; choice would be obvious--or we aren't the right three. We would know the next nine people, three cells... but each cell would know only one of us."

"Looks like computer diagram--a ternary logic."

"Does it really? At the next level there are two ways of linking: This comrade, second level, knows his cell leader, his two cellmates, and on the third level he knows the three in his subcell--he may or may not know his cellmates' subcells. One method doubles security, the other doubles speed--of repair if security is penetrated. Let's say he does not know his cellmates' subcells--Manuel, how many can he betray? Don't say he won't; today they can brainwash any person, and starch and iron and use him. How many?"

"Six," I answered. "His boss, two cellmates, three in sub-cell."

"Seven," Prof corrected, "he betrays himself, too. Which leaves seven broken links on three levels to repair. How?"

"I don't see how it can be," objected Wyoh. "You've got them so split up it falls to pieces."

"Manuel? An exercise for the student."

"Well... blokes down here have to have way to send message up three levels. Don't have to know who, just have to know where."

"Precisely!"

"But, Prof," I went on, "there's a better way to rig it."

"Really? Many revolutionary theorists have hammered this out, Manuel. I have such confidence in them that I'll offer you a wager--at, say, ten to one."

"Ought to take your money. Take same cells, arrange in open pyramid of tetrahedrons. Where vertices are in common, each bloke knows one in adjoining cell--knows how to send message to him, that's all he needs. Communications never break down because they run sideways as well as up and down. Something like a neural net. It's why you can knock a hole in a man's head, take chunk of brain out, and not damage thinking much. Excess capacity, messages shunt around. He loses what was destroyed but goes on functioning."

"Manuel," Prof said doubtfully, "could you draw a picture? It sounds good--but it's so contrary to orthodox doctrine that I need to see it."

"Well... could do better with stereo drafting machine. I'll try." (Anybody who thinks it's easy to sketch one hundred twenty-one tetrahedrons, a five-level open pyramid, clear enough to show relationships is invited to try!)

Presently I said, "Look at base sketch. Each vertex of each triangle shares self with zero, one, or two other triangles. Where shares one, that's its link, one direction or both--but one is enough for a multipli-redundant communication net. On corners, where sharing is zero, it jumps to right to next corner. Where sharing is double, choice is again right-handed.

"Now work it with people. Take fourth level, D-for-dog. This vertex is comrade Dan. No, let's go down one to show three levels of communication knocked out--level E-for-easy and pick Comrade Egbert.

"Egbert works under Donald, has cellmates Edward and Elmer, and has three under him, Frank, Fred, and Fatso... but knows how to send message to Ezra on his own level but not in his cell. He doesn't know Ezra's name, face, address, or anything--but has a way, phone number probably, to reach Ezra in emergency.

"Now watch it work. Casimir, level three, finks out and betrays Charlie and Cox in his cell, Baker above him, and Donald, Dan, and Dick in subcell--which isolates Egbert, Edward, and Elmer. and everybody under them.

"All three report it--redundancy, necessary to any communication system--but follow Egbert's yell for help. He calls Ezra. But Ezra is under Charlie and is isolated, too. No matter, Ezra relays both messages through his safety link, Edmund. By bad luck Edmund is under Cox, so he also passes it laterally, through Enwright... and that gets it past burned-out part and it goes up through Dover, Chambers, and Beeswax, to Adam, front office....ho replies down other side of pyramid, with lateral pass on E-for-easy level from Esther to Egbert and on to Ezra and Edmund. These two messages, up and down, not only get through at once but in way they get through, they define to home office exactly how much damage has been done and where. Organization not only keeps functioning but starts repairing self at once."

So, how big should a direct-action revolutionary cell be?

Better to be alone than to be in bad company, but it probably shouldn't be less than three. It is possible for buddy teams and lone wolfs to carry out a protracted guerrilla struggle (many Japanese holdouts did it for decades, even launching occasional attacks on the post-war governments), but it's a hard life and not many are capable of it. Also, it's unlikely that such a small force would ever cause very much damage.

I disagree with Heinlein on the idea of a three-man cell always being optimum. It often is, but there are times when you would want more personnel. A larger force will have a broader range of skills, ability to take on bigger tasks, and will likely remain potent after taking casualties.

Growing too large, however, is even worse than staying too small: detection will be easier, feeding and equipping the fighters will be harder, coming to agreement on a course of action will be more difficult, sanitation and morale may suffer depending on location, and there's an increased danger of spies and infiltrators. A direct-action revolutionary cell should probably number no more than twelve members.

Urban and suburban cells will be smaller than rural ones; a cell of ex-Navy SEALs will be able to carry out operations with fewer participants than a cell of ex-Girl Scouts. I like to joke about something I call the Dinner Table Rule: if your cell can't be comfortably seated at the average family dinner table, it should consider branching out. If it's just two guys sharing meals on one of those folding tray things, you should work on your recruitment.

Who do you recruit?

People you can trust. Close family are ideal, lifetime friends likewise. Next step down the ladder would be members of one's larger social network. The "social network", historically, would have meant folk and faith: your extended family, the community they come from, the church they go to, and so on.  It does not mean someone you just met at a bar or on the Internet, though surely you would already know that (recruitment, secure communication and OPSEC is something I'll have to go into in depth later).

Who don't you recruit?


Go look up the Seven Deadly Sins. Anyone with a predilection for one or more of them probably shouldn't be recruited; the temptation for betrayal or dereliction of duty will be too high.

Avoid drunkards, braggarts, lunatics and fools, or use them in a manner where they can compromise the larger movement and can be removed should they pose a danger ("suicide bomber" is a surprisingly good MOS for these).

Operating as a resistance fighter will require a great deal of physical, mental and emotional strength, though those who lack these may find use as above-ground auxiliaries. Age is an important consideration: Che Guevara advised recruiting no one under the age of the 16, International Law advises no one under the age of 18. In Chechnya, Africa and the Former Yugoslavia (well, most wars not involving people who can't afford to lose) it was quite common for children as young as 11 to serve in combat.

Structure and Leadership Within the Cell

For all but the smallest cells, there should be someone who decides when to have dinner, how much of the rations to serve, who has to do the dishes and when to go blow up the enemy ammo dump (this need not be the same person; the resident tactical genius may not be the greatest accountant or homemaker). Such leaders will likely arise naturally on the basis of proven experience and talents, and formal ranks probably won't be necessary.

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